Typhoon Warning

TYPHOON UPDATE: 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Haiyan is expected to continue moving slightly westerly during the the next 24 hours...with a west-northwest turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TS Haiyan will passing just to the south of Yap State on Wednesday evening.

TS Haiyan will gradually intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as the system moves over the warm open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean...and could become a well-developed Typhoon on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to almost 200 km/hr on Wednesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Typhoon (Category 1) as it heads for Yap State...about 665 km east-southeast of Colonia, Yap [8PM NOV 05: 7.2N 143.7E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes to the south of Yap State...about 105 km south-southwest of Colonia, Yap [2PM NOV 06: 8.6N 137.8E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Moving across the Philippine Sea as a Category 4 Typhoon as it dangerously approaches Eastern Visayas...about 670 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, PH [8PM NOV 07: 10.3N 131.4E @ 215kph].

SUPERTYPHOON UPDATE: All missionaries are instructed to stay home. We are taking all precautions to keep our missionaries safe.

HAIYAN approaching Super Typhoon (STY) status as it rapidly gained strength due to the emergence of a pinhole-sized eye a few hours ago...now poses a serious threat to Eastern Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao. The initial potential landfall area of this typhoon remains along the Samar-Leyte Area on Friday morning, November 08.

This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Super Typhoon MIKE (RUPING) which passed across the Visayas in November of 1991 and devastated much of Metro Cebu. Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should closely monitor the approach of this potentially destructive typhoon. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be implemented beginning today as the storm is only 3 days away from hitting land.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters the P.A.R. at Category 4 strength while passing close to the Republic of Palau...moving over the South Philippine Sea...about 160 km north-northeast of Koror, Palau [2AM NOV 07: 8.7N 134.9E @ 250kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 5 STY as it prepares to make landfall over Southern Samar...about 290 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM NOV 08: 10.7N 127.9E @ 260kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving across Mindoro Strait after traversing Northern Visayas...weakens to Category 4...about 60 km north-northeast of Coron, Palawan [2AM NOV 09: 12.5N 120.4E @ 215kph].

After all our Zone Training Meetings this morning, missionaries are instructed to buy food for at least three days, water, candles and load-up their cell phones. I’ve instructed those missionaries who live up in the mountain to come down and stay with the missionaries in the city- in case there is landslide and the road become impassable. Missionaries who are leaving their house are asked to secure their belongings left behind. Those near the shoreline are also moved inland. Sisters are well secured including our couples. Starting this evening at 6- all missionaries are expected to be home and remain indoor until after the storm. No one is allowed to go outside. I’ve instructed missionaries that we will assist only after the storm and not during the typhoon. I’ve also instructed our San Carlos District to cancel their temple trip to Cebu tomorrow. I have cancelled all interviews, appointments and visits until after the storm. Every companionship will report to their district leaders on their safety. District leaders will report to zone leaders and all zone leaders will update me tonight and on a regular basis. FYI.

Several tropical storms and typhoons have crossed the Philippines this year, but Haiyan promises to be among the most intense if not the strongest. (Utor crossed the northern Philippines as a category 4 storm in early August.)

“Haiyan will likely be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year,” writes Wunderground meteorologist Jeff Masters. “This is particularly true since Tropical Depression Thirty dumped heavy rains over the central Philippines Monday, which helped saturate the soils.”

Tropical storms and typhoons to impact the Philippines this year (Brian McNoldy)

AccuWeather discusses Haiyan’s likely impacts in more detail:

Rain totals along the path of Haiyan could top 200 mm (8 inches). Mudslides are a serious concern in the higher terrain, where localized totals of 250 to 300 mm (10 to 12 inches) are not out of the question.

The expected track of Haiyan will take it directly over the areas hardest hit by a powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake that killed more than 150 people in the middle of October.

Haiyan will also produce a severe and inundating storm surge, especially along the eastern coast of southern Luzon and Samar islands.

Typhoon Haiyan, roughly 48-60 hours from a dangerous encounter with the Philippines, is rapidly intensifying.

We are still bracing for the big hit! All missionaries are staying home. Everyone is calm and studying and planning all day. Office staff staying in the mission office for emergency landline calls only. We appreciate all your prayers!

Calm before the storm...picture from a Mission Presidents Wife in the Phillipines. (Thursday Morning) they are expecting impact Friday.